Why the Presidential Election May Not Matter as Much as You Think for Long-Term Investors

As Election Day approaches, investors are on edge, uncertain how the election results will affect the markets. Polls show a narrow split across swing states, with many traders preparing for potential delays and disputes over the results. However, while short-term volatility is all but guaranteed, historical data shows that over the long term, who wins the White House has a limited impact on market performance. Here’s why investors should keep their focus on the bigger picture.

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Navigating Short-Term Volatility: What to Expect Post-Election

With polls revealing a split electorate and the VIX (volatility index) remaining above 20—a level that signals market jitters—Wall Street is preparing for potential market turbulence. Treasury yields are down, and the dollar has recently seen its largest drop since August. Options markets are showing a defensive stance, indicating that many investors are bracing for the possibility of prolonged uncertainty. If the election results are delayed or disputed, markets could see heightened volatility in the weeks to come.

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Compounding the election's immediate effects, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and subsequent press conference are scheduled for Thursday, just days after Election Day. The Fed’s insights on future interest rates will influence markets, as will earnings reports from major companies. Chris Larkin from E*Trade describes this as “not just any week,” highlighting how the timing of multiple economic events could amplify the market’s reaction to the election outcome.

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Yet, while the potential for sharp movements exists in the short term, these election-related disruptions often fade. Bespoke Investment Group data shows that the S&P 500 has typically gained 3.9% on average by the end of election years, with positive returns recorded in six out of the last eight elections. As history suggests, while Election Day may bring volatility, the market usually finds its footing.

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Long-Term Perspective: Why the Election Won’t Change the Big Picture

Despite the current buzz around election outcomes, long-term investors have little reason to worry. Historical data tells a reassuring story: presidential terms generally don’t dictate the overall trajectory of the market. Over the past decades, markets have shown resilience regardless of which party holds the White House. Deutsche Bank’s analysis revealed that 13 of the last 15 presidents saw average annual stock returns ranging from 10% to 17%, regardless of party affiliation. Such results underscore the fact that market performance is shaped more by economic fundamentals than by politics.

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The stock market’s resilience is rooted in underlying drivers like GDP growth, corporate earnings, and inflation—all factors that aren’t closely tied to political cycles. Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, aptly put it: “Market performance has more to do with economic fundamentals and the earnings outlook than it does with who sits in the White House.” This view is echoed by trends over the last eight presidential elections, where the S&P 500 averaged a 6.6% gain in the six months following Election Day, compared to just 1.5% in the six months leading up to it. These numbers illustrate a fundamental truth: the market tends to stabilize and grow over time, regardless of the administration.

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Staying Focused on Long-Term Goals: alphaAI’s Approach

For investors wondering how to navigate these turbulent times, focusing on long-term goals remains the best approach. Here at alphaAI, our adaptive portfolios are designed to take advantage of market fundamentals rather than react to short-term political shifts. Here’s how we suggest staying steady in the days and weeks to come:

1. Ignore the Noise: Short-term volatility is common around election cycles, but historical patterns show that both Democratic and Republican administrations have overseen strong stock returns. A steady approach rooted in broader economic trends generally outperforms reactive strategies.
2. Hedge Against Uncertainty: Rather than making short-term bets tied to political outcomes, alphaAI’s adaptive portfolios focus on hedging against downside risk. By automatically adjusting allocations based on market conditions, our technology helps protect against significant losses and provides a foundation for steady growth, regardless of political cycles.
3. Remove Emotion from Investing: Election seasons often heighten emotions, but reacting to daily news can lead to impulsive decisions that derail long-term goals. alphaAI’s AI-driven platform removes emotion from the equation, using data-driven analysis to make calculated adjustments in response to real market shifts rather than momentary headlines.

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Final Thoughts: Staying Steady Through Election Cycles

For long-term investors, election seasons bring moments of uncertainty, but the bigger picture remains clear: economic fundamentals drive market growth, not election results. At alphaAI, our technology-driven approach is rooted in this principle, offering clients an investment strategy that stays focused on fundamentals, no matter what happens on Election Day.

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Election years can feel turbulent, but by keeping your focus on a solid, data-driven strategy, you can navigate the noise and achieve your long-term financial goals. Presidents may come and go, but well-built investment plans stand the test of time.